This week on Rubbish Talk, Alasdair is back with another solo episode, taking a deep dive into an issue becoming increasingly difficult to ignore: does Scotland have enough accessible capacity to manage its residual waste?
A key starting point is Zero Waste Scotland’s recent Energy from Waste Capacity report. It estimates that Scotland could have around 2.37 million tonnes per year of permitted EfW capacity by 2028, but operational capacity is expected to be lower at around 1.96–2.08 million tonnes. Crucially, the report also identifies limited headroom for planned and unexpected shutdowns.
Alasdair argues that capacity on paper is very different from capacity actually available to operators. Existing contracts, location, waste specifications, planned maintenance and unexpected breakdowns can all restrict where residual waste can realistically go.
The pressure isn’t limited to EfW. Zero Waste Scotland’s 2025 Landfill Capacity Assessment looked ahead to 2036 and made recommendations to address a projected landfill capacity deficit from 2026–27.
Recent developments add to those concerns. Avondale Environmental entered administration in 2025, while Valencia extended landfill closures across its seven UK sites. Meanwhile, an appeal concerning proposals to increase landfill capacity at Greenoakhill Quarry remains with the Scottish Government’s Planning and Environmental Appeals Division.
For smaller waste and skip operators, fewer outlets can quickly become a major operational problem. Even after everything realistically recyclable has been removed, residual material still needs somewhere lawful to go. If those outlets aren’t available, waste can begin accumulating on sites, potentially turning a capacity problem into a permit compliance issue.
And this isn’t just a waste industry problem. Higher disposal and transport costs ultimately feed through to construction, manufacturing, local authorities, businesses and the public. Alasdair also raises concerns that restricting legitimate outlets could create greater opportunities for illegal disposal.
With Scotland’s landfill ban due to take full effect from 1 January 2028, the question isn’t simply whether Scotland has enough capacity – it’s whether we have enough resilience when facilities close, break down or reach capacity.
💬 We’d particularly like to hear from waste operators. Are you already experiencing capacity or disposal issues? What do you think needs to happen next? Get in touch and share your experiences at hello@rubbishtalk.co.uk.
Useful Links
Zero Waste Scotland | Energy Waste Capacity Report
Zero Waste Scotland | Landfill Capacity Assessment Report
Scottish Government | PPA-260-2186 (Planning Permission Appeal)
Avondale Environmental Enters Administration
Valencia Extends Landfill Closures to all Seven UK Sites
Firefighters Spend Second Night Tackling Blaze at Landfill Site
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