Scotland’s waste management infrastructure is coming under increasing pressure, raising an important question: do we have enough accessible Energy from Waste and landfill capacity to manage the waste Scotland continues to produce?
The issue is the focus of Episode 123 of Rubbish Talk, where Alasdair Meldrum examines recent capacity reports alongside developments affecting disposal outlets across Scotland and the wider UK.
Zero Waste Scotland’s recently published Energy from Waste Capacity report estimates that Scotland could have a maximum of around 2.37 million tonnes per annum of permitted EfW capacity by 2028, assuming facilities under construction or with targeted commissioning dates are completed on schedule. However, estimated operational capacity is lower, at around 1.96–2.08 million tonnes per annum.
Perhaps more importantly, the report highlights limited headroom within Scotland’s EfW fleet. It concludes that theoretical spare capacity may not be sufficient to provide contingency for annual planned shutdowns, while a prolonged outage at a large facility could require waste to be exported unless temporary landfill arrangements were permitted.
For waste operators, there is another important distinction: permitted capacity does not necessarily mean accessible capacity. Facilities may already have long-term contracts, while location, acceptance criteria, planned maintenance and unexpected outages can further reduce the options available.
Landfill presents its own challenges. The Zero Waste Scotland Landfill Capacity Assessment 2025 was commissioned on behalf of the Scottish Government to assess capacity through to 2036 and includes recommendations aimed at mitigating a projected deficit from 2026–27.
Since then, the sector has also seen significant developments affecting individual facilities. Avondale Environmental entered administration, while Valencia extended temporary closures to all seven of its UK landfill sites. An application to increase capacity at Greenoakhill Quarry was refused and is currently the subject of a planning appeal.
For independent waste and skip operators, these pressures have very practical consequences. Operators can maximise recycling and recovery, but there will still be residual material requiring a legitimate outlet. When capacity becomes unavailable, material can begin accumulating, increasing the risk of otherwise legitimate operators experiencing permit compliance difficulties.
That distinction is important. Permit non-compliance and deliberate waste criminality are not necessarily the same thing. Regulators need to continue tackling genuine waste crime, but the sector also needs sufficient legitimate infrastructure to allow responsible operators to remain compliant.
The effects also extend beyond waste businesses. Increased gate fees and longer transport distances ultimately increase costs for construction companies, manufacturers, local authorities and other waste producers – costs which eventually work their way through to customers and taxpayers.
With Scotland’s landfill ban due to take full effect from 1 January 2028, the discussion needs to move beyond headline capacity figures. The bigger question is whether Scotland has a waste management system resilient enough to cope when infrastructure is unavailable.
As Alasdair describes it in Episode 123, waste behaves a little like a river: if you block it in one place, it backs up somewhere else.
What are you seeing on the ground? Are outlets becoming harder to find? Are gate fees or transport distances increasing? Is capacity beginning to affect permit compliance?
We want to hear directly from operators across Scotland.
Email your experiences and views to hello@rubbishtalk.co.uk
Listen to Episode 123 of Rubbish Talk for the full discussion.
